MMM INDUSTRY OUTLOOK 2026
Global mining enters 2026 with a firmer macro backdrop and sharper fault lines. The IMF projects ~3.3% world growth this year, underpinned by technology investment and easing financial conditions, but with regional divergence that matters for bulk and base‑metal demand.
Copper remains structurally tight on electrification and the AI data‑centre build‑out, while lithium stabilises after an oversupplied 2024–25, and nickel trades between an underlying surplus and Indonesia‑driven quota shocks.
Costs stay elevated on inflation and grade decline, forcing portfolio discipline and digital step‑changes to defend margins. Meanwhile, regulation is turning into hard compliance: the EU’s CBAM begins charging in 2026, and Australia’s multi‑year EPBC reforms establish a new federal regulator and tighter standards. For operators and suppliers alike, the winners will couple market realism (selective growth in copper and critical minerals) with executional excellence (tailings assurance, carbon border readiness, AI‑enabled productivity).
The 2026 macro and market setting
Macro: The IMF’s January update calls global growth “steady amid divergent forces,” projecting 3.3% for 2026 as tech investment offsets trade headwinds. Equity houses see sturdy but not spectacular conditions: Goldman Sachs expects resilient global growth and supportive risk assets, with the US outperforming the consensus.
Sector demand & prices: Fitch retains a neutral sector stance, flagging 2.0–2.5% demand growth for copper and aluminium in 2026, anchored by energy‑transition capex. S&P Global highlights the data‑centre boom as a new structural copper sink, compounding grid and EV demand and widening medium‑term deficits without accelerated supply.
Costs: S&P Global’s mine‑cost outlook shows persistent inflation, energy costs and lower grades resetting industry AISCs, with 2026 likely to be a banner year for precious metals margins but a squeeze for battery metals where prices lag costs.
The six forces shaping mining
Political
- Resource security diplomacy: The U.S. Critical Minerals Ministerial will launch new bilateral frameworks and financing to diversify supply chains across 54 delegations, reinforcing “friend‑shoring” of battery inputs
- Indonesian nickel policy: Tighter RKAB quotas, stricter permit enforcement and environmental scrutiny constrain ore availability and inject volatility into a market otherwise in surplus.
Economic
- Neutral sector outlook, selective tightness: Copper/aluminium consumption growth ~2–2.5%; copper’s refined market runs tight on supply disruptions and slow mine growth.
- Portfolio discipline: Operators cut non‑core assets and streamline to manage cost inflation and price dispersion across metals.
Social
- Workforce scarcity: Australia’s miners press for skilled‑migration reforms as retirements and competition for talent (energy, defence, infrastructure) strain project delivery. Jobs and Skills Australia’s shortage data underlines persistent gaps in technical roles across states.
Technology
- From pilots to platform: AI, autonomy and digital twins move from proofs to scaled operations, with investors now scrutinising digital maturity and data governance in diligence.
Environmental
- Tailings governance: ICMM reports 67% of member facilities in full GISTM conformance (and >80% at “very high/extreme” consequence sites), while the Global Tailings Management Institute ramps independent assurance frameworks.
- Critical‑minerals demand: IEA data confirms persistent long‑run demand growth for copper, nickel, lithium, graphite and rare earths across clean‑energy scenarios.
Legal & Regulatory
- EU CBAM (charging phase): From 1 Jan 2026, importers must purchase certificates reflecting embedded emissions in cement, iron/steel, aluminium, fertilisers, electricity, hydrogen, with scope widening to selected downstream metal‑intensive goods.
- Australia’s EPBC reforms: Phased commencement through 2026–2028 establishes the National Environmental Protection Agency (from 1 July 2026) and introduces National Environmental Standards: implications for approvals, offsets and enforcement.
Commodity Snapshots
Copper: the system metal of 2026
A trio of drivers: grid modernisation, EVs, and AI data‑centres, keeps demand resilient. J.P. Morgan sees a ~330kt refined deficit in 2026 on disruptions and slow mine growth; prices remain elevated versus history. S&P Global’s new study warns that copper shortfalls constitute a “systemic risk” for electrification as demand tracks toward 42 Mt by 2040.
Lithium: stabilising after the slump
After a severe 2024–25 correction, 2026 opens with signs of stabilisation and selective recovery, underpinned by energy‑storage growth even as EV demand normalises and chemistries diversify (LFP, sodium‑ion). Cycle‑timing risk remains: supply responses and conversion bottlenecks can re‑introduce volatility.
Nickel: policy driven volatility atop surplus
Consensus still points to a surplus given Indonesia’s dominance and HPAL buildout, capping prices; yet 2026 quota/permit tightening has already forced rallies and raised cost‑curve floors. Environmental scrutiny of HPAL tailings and a push to higher‑value downstream products add execution risk.
Iron ore: the Simandou effect
S&P Global flags Rio Tinto’s Simandou project 2026 entry as a potential game‑changer for the cost structure, adding large‑scale, high‑grade tons and reshaping trade flows over the medium term.
Gold: The outlier metal redefining the 2026 profit landscape
Gold’s ~42% surge in 2025, briefly pushing prices above US$4,300/oz, was fuelled by geopolitical tensions, safe haven demand, a weaker USD and record central bank buying, with tariff uncertainty and strong ETF inflows lifting the metal above US$4,000/oz for the first time and delivering one of the strongest margin expansions in years. Most major banks now expect prices to stay elevated through 2026, generally between US$4,500–5,000/oz with potential upside toward US$5,400/oz if rate cuts accelerate or geopolitical risks intensify.
While these conditions created exceptional returns for low‑cost leaders, many mid‑tier and high‑cost operators captured far less benefit as inflation, energy costs and lower grades raised their operating base, and long‑standing structural constraints such as higher sustaining capital, limited access to growth funding and a decade of declining discoveries restricted their ability to scale or reinvest. As a result, smaller producers are using the high‑price environment more to maintain stability and manage debt than to unlock meaningful margin growth
Australia 2026: growth with new guardrails
Strategic investment & policy: Australia is progressing from exporter to strategic partner with the Critical Minerals Strategy (2023–2030) and the Critical Minerals Strategic Reserve, slated to be operational in H2 2026; January announcements flagged >A$1bn in financing and stockpiles, initially targeting antimony, gallium, and rare earths.
Approvals & compliance: EPBC reforms introduce the NEPA and National Environmental Standards, with staged implementation dates from 2026–2028; proponents should plan for more rigorous assessments, offsets, and transparent data obligations.
Workforce: The Minerals Council is pushing for skills‑visa reforms as vacancies outstrip supply in critical roles; resourcing constraints now influence schedule and safety risk.
ESG & assurance: licence to operate in practice
Tailings: Move to full GISTM conformance with credible third‑party assurance. ICMM’s 2025 disclosures show strong progress but continued work for the remaining one‑third of facilities, and boards are expected to own the residual risk and timeline to full alignment.
Carbon at the border: CBAM requires authorised‑declarant status, verified emissions data, and annual certificate surrender; scope enlargements to downstream products increase exposure for many mining‑adjacent exports.
Biodiversity & cultural heritage: EPBC reforms harden standards and enforcement, operators should expect tougher penalties and more prescriptive information requirements.
Deals & capital: disciplined growth, copper centric optionality
EY’s 2026 risk outlook highlights operational complexity and the pivot from “big‑ticket M&A” to productivity and portfolio quality, even as copper‑focused consolidation remains strategically compelling. Bain expects larger mining deals to remain a key growth lever where acquirers can be the “natural owner” of tier‑one ore bodies, especially in copper and energy‑transition metals
Technology & operations: scaling AI where margins live
BCG notes the industry’s rapid climb in AI maturity, with advanced use across exploration targeting, asset design and planning, now a core answer to labour scarcity and variability. Global Mining Review underscores that 2026 is the year AI becomes central to decision‑making, not peripheral, making data architecture and governance investment strategically material.
Risk watchlist for 2026
- Indonesia’s nickel policy cadence (quota timing, HPAL scrutiny) and any spillovers to stainless/battery chains.
- Copper supply disruptions (LatAm, Indonesia) vs. hyperscaler/grid demand—monitor treatment charges and regional inventory dislocations.
- CBAM compliance readiness across multi‑tier supply chains, especially for downstream steel/aluminium‑intensive components.
- EPBC standards roll‑out milestones (NEPA start 1 July 2026; standards and offsets guidance thereafter).
- Tailings assurance cadence toward full GISTM conformance, prioritising consequence classes and independent audits.
What it means (actions for 2026)
For miners, OEMs, and integrators supporting the sector:
Design for carbon at the border
- Map CBAM exposure (direct and embedded steel/aluminium) and identify authorised declarant requirements for EU importers; move suppliers to verified actual emissions to avoid costly defaults.
- Build internal processes for certificate management, quarterly data collection and auditor‑ready documentation.
Double down on copper resilience
- Secure smelting, logistics and inventory buffers early; track treatment/refining charge signals and regional spreads as indicators of tightness.
- Accelerate de‑bottlenecking and debottleneck‑grade strategies at operating assets; expand recycling and scrap capture where economics allow.
De‑risk nickel portfolios
- Build scenario plans for Indonesian quota swings and permitting delays; diversify feedstocks and offtake terms for battery‑grade routes; budget for higher marginal costs if quotas remain restrictive.
Meet the new ESG floor
- Complete GISTM gap‑closing plans and schedule third‑party assurance; publish conformance status and consequence classifications transparently.
- For Australian projects, front‑load EPBC requirements: baseline studies, biodiversity offsets strategy, and cultural‑heritage engagement, into concept phase to avoid redesign later.
Scale AI where it pays now
- Prioritise predictive maintenance, planning/scheduling optimisation, and energy/emissions optimisation: the three areas with fastest payback given cost inflation and labour constraints.
- Stand up a data governance backbone (data model, OT/IT security, lineage, access controls) to satisfy investor and regulator expectations on reliability and
Talent and delivery
- Blend targeted migration with accelerated upskilling (electrical/instrumentation, autonomous operations, data engineering) to protect schedules and safety.
Outlook: steady growth, higher standards, smarter execution
Mining’s 2026 story is not about blanket boom or bust. it’s about tight metals (copper), stabilising but volatile batteries (lithium/nickel), and rising regulatory and societal expectations that reward disciplined operators. The macro is supportive but not forgiving; the rulebook is clearer but tougher; and value creation hinges on operational excellence, credible ESG, and scaled digital capability.
Got questions about the MMM sector's outlook in 2026?
1. What is the biggest risk mining companies face heading into 2026?
2. Why is operational complexity becoming such a challenge?
3. How is artificial intelligence reshaping mining in 2026?
4. Why are critical minerals becoming a top strategic priority?
5. What is driving the surge in mining M&A heading into 2026?
6. How close is the industry to achieving full conformance with the Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management (GISTM)?
7. What cost pressures will miners face in 2026?
8. Which commodities are positioned for margin strength in 2026?
9. How will global geopolitics influence mining markets in 2026?
10. What major forces will reshape mining operations in 2026?
References (selected)
- Deloitte Australia Mining Report: AI Integration and Critical Minerals
https://discoveryalert.com.au/strategic-technology-integration-australian-mining-2026/ - EY:Operational complexity reshapes mining’s risk landscape for 2026
https://www.ey.com/en_gl/newsroom/2025/10/operational-complexity-reshapes-mining-s-risk-landscape-for-2026 - Bail: M&A Report: It’s Time for Mining Companies to Get More Serious About M&A
https://www.bain.com/insights/mining-m-and-a-report-2026/ - ICMM Tailings Progress Report
https://ghextractives.com/wp-content/uploads/2025/11/tailings-progress-report.pdf - The Next Chapter in Tailing Management
https://magazine.cim.org/en/environment/the-next-chapter-in-tailings-management-en/ - S&P Global: Mine cost outlook 2026: Inflation, new supply reshape global mining landscape
https://www.spglobal.com/market-intelligence/en/news-insights/research/2026/01/mine-cost-outlook-2026-inflation-new-supply-reshape-global-mining-landscape - 2026 Mining Outlook: 7 Trends Shaping the Future of Global Operations
https://minetek.com/fr/resource-hub/news/7-trends-for-mining-in-2026/ - Outlook 2026: Miners in the spotlight – Are we at the start of a multi-year upcycle for commodities
https://www.bakersteelcap.com/2026/01/21/outlook-2026-miners-in-the-spotlight-are-we-at-the-start-of-a-multi-year-upcycle-for-commodities/ - 2026 Outlook: Metals & mining: what to look for in 2026
https://www.woodmac.com/news/opinion/metals-mining-2026-outlook/ - Global outlook 2026: Stability with challenges
https://mining.com.au/global-outlook-2026-stability-with-consequences/ - Deloitte: The top 10 trends shaping the mining and metals sector
https://www.deloitte.com/global/en/Industries/mining-metals/research/tracking-the-trends.html
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